‘Don’t See a Major War with India, but Have to Be Ready’: Pakistan Ex-NSA’s Strategic Outlook

In a current announcement, Pakistan’s former National Security Advisor (ex-NSA) downplayed the probability of a full-scale conflict with India but emphasized the necessity of navy preparedness. This nuanced stance displays decades of complicated family members between the nuclear-armed acquaintances. This article explores the historical context, diplomatic efforts, defense strategies, and external effects shaping Pakistan-India warfare readiness, imparting insights into regional balance.

Historical Context of Pakistan-India Tensions

Wars and Skirmishes: A Legacy of Conflict

Since partition in 1947, India and Pakistan have fought four wars (1947, 1965, 1971, and 1999) and several border skirmishes. The 2019 Balakot airstrike and subsequent aerial engagements underscored continual volatility. These conflicts, regularly rooted in territorial disputes and mutual distrust, have entrenched a cycle of navy posturing.

The Kashmir Issue: A Perpetual Flashpoint

Kashmir stays the core dispute, with both international locations claiming the vicinity in full. Cross-border shelling along the Line of Control (LoC) and allegations of terrorism gasoline tensions. The ex-NSA’s feedback implicitly well knows that Kashmir’s unresolved popularity necessitates vigilance, even supposing an outright battle appears unlikely.

Diplomatic Efforts to De-strengthen Tensions

Recent Dialogues: Fragile Progress

Despite sporadic talks, formal international relations have stalled considering that India revoked Jammu and Kashmir’s autonomy in 2019. Backchannel negotiations, but, persist. The ex-NSA hinted at quiet international relations’s position in stopping escalation, although public rhetoric remains combative.

Track-II Diplomacy: Bridging the Divide

Civil society initiatives and Track-II dialogues involving academics, journalists, and retired officials foster unofficial exchanges. These efforts, even as no longer binding, maintain verbal exchange channels open, aligning with the ex-NSA’s emphasis on non-army struggle control.

Military Preparedness: A Pillar of Pakistan’s Strategy

Defense Budgets: Balancing Act

Pakistan allocates about 17-18% of its price range to defense (

10.4billionin2023),whileIndiaspends72.6 billion. This disparity drives Pakistan’s reliance on strategic alliances and asymmetric skills. The ex-NSA’s call for readiness mirrors this fact, prioritizing cost-effective deterrence.

Nuclear Deterrence: The Ultimate Safeguard

Both countries possess nuclear arsenals, creating a precarious “balance of terror.” Pakistan’s tactical nuclear weapons (TNWs) aim to counter India’s “Cold Start” doctrine. The ex-NSA’s stance reflects a self-belief in nuclear deterrence preventing big-scale battles but recognizes the dangers of miscalculation.

External Actors Shaping Regional Dynamics

The U.S. Role: A Double-Edged Sword

Historically, U.S. Mediation has influenced Indo-Pak family members (e.g., the 1965 ceasefire). Recent U.S. Tilt toward India for countering China complicates Pakistan’s strategic calculus, pushing it in the direction of Beijing.

China’s Influence: An Economic and Military Lifeline

China’s $62 billion CPEC investment in Pakistan and military collaborations (JF-17 opponents, naval initiatives) bolster Islamabad’s talents. The ex-NSA’s readiness narrative aligns with China’s regional ambitions, countering India’s growing U.S. Partnership.

Conclusion: Navigating a Precarious Peace

The ex-NSA’s feedback underscores a practical method: the struggle is avoidable via diplomacy, but preparedness remains non-negotiable. While historic grievances and Kashmir preserve tensions simmering, nuclear deterrence and external alliances create a delicate equilibrium. Sustained dialogue, subsidized through confidence-building measures, is critical for lengthy-term balance.